Choosing to invest in a Broadway show is both an art and a science. Carl Moellenberg brings decades of experience — and a 60%+ success rate — to every decision. His evaluation process is deliberate, refined, and deeply personal. Each potential production is analyzed through a holistic lens that considers both creative and financial factors.
Everything begins with the story. Carl seeks emotionally resonant narratives — ones that move audiences, challenge perspectives, or stay with you long after the curtain falls. Whether it’s a play or a musical, the story must have a compelling story.
Broadway shows are expensive. Carl looks for productions with reasonable capitalization, sustainable weekly costs, and clear recoupment scenarios. Smaller, well-managed shows can often return profits faster and with lower risk.
Star power has become an increasingly important factor in a show’s success. The season of 2024-2025 was a prime example with the casts of Othello ( Denzel Washington and Jake Gyllenhaal), Good Night, and Good Luck (George Clooney) and the star laden cast of Glengarry Glen Ross . Carl also values strong ensemble casts with breakout potential — the kind of talent that captivates audiences and builds word-of-mouth momentum. Spring Awakening is a perfect example, where a cast of relative unknowns became Broadway’s next generation of stars.
The lead producers are the backbone of every production. Carl works with professionals who are ethical, collaborative, and experienced in both creative and commercial aspects of Broadway.
Every show must have a defined target audience. Whether it’s Gen Z theatergoers or more traditional patrons, Carl evaluates if the production understands and can reach its core market.
In a competitive season, uniqueness matters. Carl analyzes the current Broadway landscape to determine whether a show fills an underserved niche or offers something audiences can’t get elsewhere.
Visionary leadership makes a difference. Carl backs directors with proven track records or emerging voices with bold, fresh ideas.
Revivals and new works each come with distinct risk-reward profiles. Revivals offer built-in familiarity and tend to be more reliable, but often have shorter runs and limited upside. New productions carry more risk but offer far greater potential — especially if they resonate widely, tour successfully, or expand internationally. Identifying the next long-running musical with blockbuster return potential is one of Carl’s top priorities.
Carl also considers long-term potential: touring productions, international licenses, amateur rights, and film adaptations. National tours, in particular, have become a reliable and often substantial source of profit. Investors in the original Broadway production are typically given the opportunity to invest in the tour, extending the show’s financial upside well beyond its initial run. The best shows continue earning long after their Broadway curtain falls.
Carl’s process is grounded in financial rigor, but his intuition and passion for story are what truly drive his success. As both a banker and a Broadway producer, he sees what others miss — and that has made all the difference.